Dengue fever has deepened its roots and severely impacted the health of people over the last ten years in the country. This phenomenon occurs especially during the post-monsoon season (20th September till 5th December) provided the conditions are favorable. The dengue triggers during those periods where temperature and humidity threshold remains 26-29°C (3-5 weeks) and 60% respectively. Moreover, the rainfall remains > 27mm with a maximum time lag period of 3 weeks. The active period for dengue attacks is two hours after sunrise and two hours before sunset. The breeding stops once the temperature falls below 16°C.
Keeping in view the past data analysis, current and future climate outlook, the above mentioned atmospheric variables are providing an ideal environment for a dengue outbreak. Based on the analysis, the environment will be conducive in October 2021 for dengue spread and it is predicted that it may outbreak particularly in eight major cities of Pakistan i.e., Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Hyderabad, Faisalabad and Multan during 10th October to 20th November, 2021.
It is advised to all stakeholders to take pre-emptive measures for control of dengue outbreak. National Health agencies and Dengue control centers are advised to keep themselves updated from PMD website http://www.pmd.gov.pkDengue-AlertI